2/2009 car deals

Feb 2009 new car deals:

Carmaker	Car Deal	Expires
BMW	2.9% APR financing (up to 60 months) on most 2009 models	3/2/09
Buick, GMC, Cadillac,Chevrolet, HUMMER, Pontiac, Saturn, Saab	President's Day Sale - 0% APR financing for up to 60 months, plus up to $2,000 cash back on most models	3/2/09
Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep	Employee Pricing Plus Plus sale - 0 % APR financing for 36 months, plus employee pricing discounts, plus cash back offers varying by model	3/2/09
Ford	0% APR financing for up to 60 months, up to $3,500 cash back many 2009s	3/31/09
Toyota	Cash back rebates varying by model	3/2/09
Mazda	0 - 0.9% APR financing for up to 60 months, up to $3,000 cash back, no payments for 90 days on many models	3/2/09
Mercedes-Benz	3.9% APR financing (36 months) on some models	3/2/09
Volkswagen	0% APR financing (60 months) on 2009 Passat and Routan, 3.9% APR financing on most models	3/2/09
Volvo	0.9% APR financing on 2008 models, up to $1,000 cash back on 2008 and 2009 models	3/31/09

Wal-Mart CEO sees no quick rebound for U.S. economy

The chief executive of Wal-Mart Stores said on Monday that he expects the U.S. economy to remain extraordinarily challenging in the first half of the year and he was not expecting a quick turnaround.

Lee Scott said the U.S. government's efforts to stimulate the economy should have "some impact," but he added: "I don't see anything that tells me it's going to turn around quickly."

"The second half of the year, you would hope, would be better," he said. "We all hope by next Christmas it certainly isn't any worse."

Wal-Mart, the discount giant, has been gaining market share in the past year as consumers seek out its low prices on items such as food and medicine to stretch limited budgets.

But a year-long recession, mounting job losses and tighter access to credit combined to produce the worst holiday sales season in nearly four decades, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Wal-Mart was not immune to the harsh climate and last week posted lower-than-expected December sales and cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast.

Scott said this downturn may fundamentally change people's spending habits.

"I'm not necessarily convinced that just when all this liquidity and things hit, if you're going to have the same immediate desire to go back to consumption and debt," he said, referring to a potential U.S. government stimulus plan.

=========================================

Update 2/13/2009:

Wal-Mart Stores announced Tuesday that it is eliminating as many as 800 positions at its headquarters in an effort to reduce costs.

Most of nonfarm jobs lost in CA are housing related

In the year ending in November, 71 percent of the nonfarm jobs lost in California were housing-related.

Many of the nation's leading mortgage lenders -- Countrywide Financial, New Century Financial, IndyMac Bancorp, and Fremont General Corp. -- were based in California and have since been bought by larger banks or gone bankrupt.

Unemployment rate rose to 7.2% in December

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The unemployment rate rose to 7.2% in December, the highest it has been since 1993.

The government also does report a so-called underemployment rate, which includes some part-time workers as well as people who have given up looking for work during the past year. That figure is now 13.5%.

Prior to 1994, all people who were "discouraged workers" were counted in the unemployment survey. But that's no longer the case. So he believes his number is more of an apples-to-apples comparison to some of the numbers cited about the peak level of unemployment during the Great Depression, which was around 25%.

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2/6/2009 update:

Nationwide: 7.6%
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3/6/2009:

Nationwide: 8.1%
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5/8/2009

Nationwide: 8.9%

U.S. consumer bankruptcy rose to 1.06M in 2008

The American Bankruptcy Institute said overall consumer filings rose to 1.06 million in 2008, compared with 801,840 during 2007. The ABI based its study on data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center.

2008 car sales

For the full year, GM's sales fell 23% to 2.95 million vehicles, Ford's declined 21% to 1.98 million and Toyota's U.S. sales declined 15% to 2.22 million vehicles. Chrysler was the No. 4 manufacturer in 2008, with sales of 1.45 million vehicles, down 30%.

12/2008 car sales down near 30%

The nation's six largest automakers all reported December sales declines of more than 30% Monday, capping the industry's worst year since 1992.

Chrysler -53% (from a year ago)
GM -31%
Toyota -37%
Ford -32%
Honda -35%
Nissan -31%
Mazda -27%

=====================================
Update: 2/13/2009

Last week, Toyota lowered its sales forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.08 million vehicles from an earlier projection of 8.87 million. It also said it expects to suffer a net loss this year for the first time since 1950.

In January, Toyota's U.S. sales fell 32%, compared with a 49% sales plunge for General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Ford's (F, Fortune 500) 40% decline. To top of page

SEC completes distribution of $42M fair fund for improper mutual fund practice

The SEC continued its recent string of Fair Funds distributions on Thursday, announcing the completion of a nearly $32 million Fair Fund distribution to current and former customers of Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. (formerly known as American Express Financial Advisors Inc.) The SEC stated that approximately 575,000 investors were affected by what it alleged were improper mutual fund practices. On April 9, 2008, the SEC approved a distribution plan, and appointed Nelson S. Kibler as the fund administrator responsible for distributing the Fair Fund.

Since June 2008, the SEC has announced Fair Funds distributions in seven other settlements: Franklin-Templeton Investments ($49 million); Banc of America Capital Management ($103 million); Banc of America Securities ($26 million); Spear & Jackson ($5.6 million); Vivendi Universal ($48 million); Janus Capital Management ($18 million); and Putnam Investment Management ($40 million).

Old car trade-in value

When bring a car to a Dealer to trade-in, the Dealer is going to get online to check the prices actually paid for that particular vehicle during the last few days at the Dealer auctions. He won't pay more than he could buy one for at the auction. Dealer lingo for this number is "MMR".

Get values from Kelley Blue Book, NADAGuides and Edmunds.com. Discuss these valuations with the Dealer if his offer looks out of whack. How can he explain his low offer? These pricing guides can be off by thousands of dollars depending on the condition of your car, the location, and time of year.

No change of status on Currency Conversion Fee Antitrust Litigation (MDL 1409)

Last update was in 2/2009, and no new status.
========================================================
12/2009:
There has been no change of status to the case.

Honda Toyota new and used car price

With current global economy situation where there are high unemployment rate, falling real estate value, and negative stock market performance, etc., Toyota announced will lose money this year; and Honda has lowered its profit estimates.

Would anyone who is familiar with the U.S. car retail business comment on how this will be reflected on Honda and Toyota new and used car price?

I would imagine for new car, there will be higher incentive or rebate to customers. For used car, the price would probably go lower.

================
2009 Honda CRV:
1/6/2009 - 2/2/2009 - $500 cash to dealer (marketing support)

2009 Toyota Matrix:
1/8/2009 - 2/2/2009 - $1000 cash to customer

2009 Toyota RAV4:
1/8/2009 - 2/2/2009 - $1500 cash to dealer (marketing support)

=================
1/24/2009 update:

All 2008 and 2009 Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep vehicles will be available at prices similar to those Chrysler employees pay -- typically thousands of dollars below the sticker price.

In addition, customers will receive discounts of up to $3,500 on 2009 vehicles and $6,000 on 2008 models.

=================

Unemployment rate continue rising

Nonfarm payroll employment rates rose in 9 states and fell in 41 states and D.C., the department said.

Unemployment:

Michigan: 9.6%
California: 8.4%
Oregon: 8.1%

Unemployment rates continue to rise for about a year after a recession ends.

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1/24/2009 update:

California: 9.3%

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2/6/2009 update:

Nationwide: 7.6%

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2/27/2009 update:

California: 10.1%

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3/5/2009 update

Santa Clara County in CA: 9.4% (where Intel, Google, Yahoo, Cisco are.)

Simple ways to save money now

. Save gas money. In the past five months gasoline prices have dropped 56%, from an average price of $4.11 to $1.80 a gallon. Also, combine multiple errand trips to one trip, and don't drive your big 4x4 SUV unless necessary.

. If a couple dines out four times in a month the expense is close to $300 in low-cost areas and $600 in higher-cost regions. Cut back on dinning-out to fewer times will save money.

. Get lower cost phone services. Cancel landline long distance service and use phone card or Skype. Reduce cable bill costs by choosing cheaper program package.

. Better insulate your home to reduce winter energy costs.

. Shop smart by doing comparative shopping online, by looking for coupon, by looking for free shipping or lower cost shipping, etc.

. Keep receipt for returning the merchandise, or to get the lower price if the store lower the price further.

Simple case study of nest egg change from 12 months ago

This is a made up case study in considering a household's assets, for 12 months change. This is to compare with the stats published in the news of 4.7% change in a quarter. I found using the numbers in my case study the asset is down 18.3% for the year and is comparable with the 4.7%/quarter number.

12 months ago:

100,000 cash savings
100,000 stock/bond investment
80,000 IRA (baby boomer average)
207,000 home, no outstanding mortgage (U.S. median price), or consider this as home equity
--------------
487,000 Total nest egg

12/2008:
104,000 cash savings
62,000 stock/bond investment
50,000 IRA
182,000 home (U.S. median price change, down 12.1% from 12 months ago)
---------------
398,000 Total nest egg (or down 18.3% from 12 months ago)

U.S. car makers bail out

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- President Bush announced a rescue plan for General Motors and Chrysler LLC Friday morning that will make $13.4 billion in federal loans available almost immediately.

The money will come from the $700 billion fund set aside to bail out Wall Street firms and banks in October.

Madoff scandal and Ponzi scheme

Bernard Madoff, founder and president of Bernard Madoff Investment Securities, a market-maker for hedge funds and banks, was charged by federal prosecutors in a $50 billion fraud at his advisory business.

Madoff, 70, was arrested today at 8:30 a.m. by the FBI and appeared before U.S. Magistrate Judge Douglas Eaton in Manhattan federal court. Charged in a criminal complaint with a single count of securities fraud, he was granted release on a $10 million bond guaranteed by his wife and secured by his apartment. Madoff’s wife was present in the courtroom.

"It’s all just one big lie," Madoff told his employees on Dec. 10, according to a statement by prosecutors. The firm, Madoff allegedly said, is "basically, a giant Ponzi scheme." He was also sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

====

Ponzi scheme

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that involves paying abnormally high returns to investors out of the money paid in by subsequent investors, rather than from the profit from any real business. It is named after Charles Ponzi. The term "Ponzi scheme" is used primarily in the United States, while other English-speaking countries do not distinguish in colloquial speech between this scheme and other forms of pyramid scheme.

A snapshot of the layoffs - 11/2008 and follow up

Circuit City	7,300	11/3/2008	Retail
Hartford Financial	500	11/4/2008	Financial
GlaxoSmithKline	1,000	11/5/2008	Pharmaceuticals/Healthcare
Fidelity	1,300	11/6/2008	Financial
Mattel	1,000	11/6/2008	Toy
Borgata Hotel Casino	375	11/6/2008	Hotels Casinos Resorts
La-Z-Boy	850	11/6/2008	Retail
Avis	700	11/6/2008	Auto services
Ford	2,600	11/7/2008	Auto
General Motors	3,600	11/7/2008	Auto
DHL Express	9,500	11/10/2008	Logistics
Nortel	1,300	11/10/2008	Technology
Circuit City	700	11/10/2008	Retail
General Motors	1,900	11/10/2008	Auto
Altria	unspecified	11/10/2008	Tobacco
Horizon Lines	70	11/11/2008	Logistics
Marietta Corp	130	11/11/2008	Manufacturing
Yum Brands	several hundred	11/12/2008	Food Service
Morgan Stanley	8,360	11/12/2008	Financial
Cessna	665	11/13/2008	Aerospace
ADT	380	11/13/2008	Security
University of Texas	3,800	11/13/2008	Education
Sprint	unspecified	11/13/2008	Telecommunications
U.S. Steel	677	11/13/2008	Steel
OfficeMax	245	11/13/2008	Retail
Sun Microsystems	6,000	11/14/2008	Technology
Fidelity	1,700	11/14/2008	Financial
Citigroup	53,000	11/17/2008	Financial
Pepsi Bottling Group	3,000	11/18/2008	Beverages
Louisiana-Pacific	200	11/18/2008	Construction
Time Inc.	600	11/19/2008	Media
HSBC Mortgage	325	11/19/2008	Financial
Pilgrim's Pride	335	11/19/2008	Food Products
Boeing	800	11/19/2008	Aerospace
Rolls-Royce Group Plc	2,000	11/19/2008	Aerospace
Akamai Technologies	110	11/19/2008	Technology
Bank of New York Mellon	1,800	11/20/2008	Financial
Wendy's	59	11/20/2008	Food Service
The Associated Press	400	11/20/2008	Media
Washington Mutual	1,600	11/20/2008	Financial
Washington Mutual	7,600	12/1/2008	Financial
U.S. Steel	3,500	12/2/2008	Steel
City of Atlanta	222	12/2/2008	Government
State Street	1,800	12/3/2008	Financial
Jefferies Group	358	12/3/2008	Financial
Adobe Systems	600	12/3/2008	Technology
Carlyle Group	100	12/3/2008	Financial
Credit Suisse Group	5,300	12/4/2008	Financial
AT&T Inc.	12,000	12/4/2008	Financial
DuPont	2,500	12/4/2008	Chemicals
Viacom	850	12/4/2008	Media
NBC Universal	500	12/4/2008	Media
Avis Budget Group Inc.	2,200	12/4/2008	Auto services
Cummins	500	12/5/2008	Industrial Equipment
Newsday	100	12/5/2008	Media
General Motors	2,000	12/5/2008	Auto
Gentex	400	12/5/2008	Technology
Pratt & Whitney	350	12/5/2008	Aerospace
Paetec	222	12/5/2008	Technology
3M	1,800	12/8/2008	Miscellaneous
Dow Chemical	5,000	12/8/2008	Chemicals
Anheuser-Busch InBev	1,400	12/8/2008	Beverages
Sony Corp	8,000	12/9/2008	Technology
Danaher Corp.	1,700	12/9/2008	Scientific Equipment
Wyndham Worldwide	4,000	12/9/2008	Hotels Casinos Resorts
Novellus	367	12/9/2008	Scientific Equipment
National Football League	150	12/9/2008	Entertainment, Sports
Principal Financial Group	550	12/9/2008	Financial
Rio Tinto	14,000	12/10/2008	Mining
Electronic Arts	unspecified	12/10/2008	Technology
SKF	2,500	12/10/2008	Industrial Equipment
Office Depot	2,200	12/10/2008	Retail
National Public Radio	85	12/10/2008	Media
Stanley Works	2,000	12/11/2008	Household and Personal Products
Sara Lee	700	12/11/2008	Food Products
Total:	199,450

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Update: 2/10/2009

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Motors announced Tuesday it is cutting 10,000 workers, or 14% of its salaried jobs worldwide. A third of those job losses will be in the United States.

The troubled automaker also said it will cut the pay for its remaining U.S. salaried staff.

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Update: 2/13/2009

Hit by expectations of further financial losses, Pioneer Corp. has announced 10,000 job cuts, plant closings in the US and UK, and plans to leave the plasma display market. Job cuts will include 6,000 full-time salaried employees and 4,000 contract workers both in Japan and other countries.

In a move resulting in some 350 job layoffs, the company will shut down two overseas plasma display assembly plants, located in Pomona, California, and Castleford, Britain. Pioneer plans to exit the plasma display business entirely by March of this year, according to wire reports.

=========================

2/24/2009 update:

Employers cut nearly 600,000 jobs in January, the biggest loss since 1974. That sent the unemployment rate to 7.6 percent, the highest in 16 years. Since the recession began in December 2007, companies have cut a net total of nearly 3.6 million jobs. Home Depot Inc., Boeing Co., Pfizer Inc., Caterpillar Inc., Micro (2000), Spansion (3000) each announced job cut.

==========================

3/5/2009 update:

Northrop Grumman to cut 750 jobs.

Household worth drops by $2.8 trillion

The government reported Thursday that household debt in the third quarter fell for the first time ever. Meanwhile, net worth dropped by the largest amount on record based on data going back to 1951.

Consumer debt fell an annualized $30 billion, or 0.8% in the third quarter to $13.91 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve's flow of funds report.

Americans holding less debt may sound like a positive, but it also means consumers are spending less, as debt has become more expensive and harder to come by.

Furthermore, the U.S. economy has shed 1.9 million jobs so far in 2008.

Consumers watched their net worth fall for the fourth quarter in a row as it dropped by $2.8 trillion, or 4.7%, to $56.5 trillion, dragged down by huge drops in home values and in the stock market. It was the largest decline in the 57-year history of the report.

When to start collecting social security benefits?

Figuring out whether to take Social Security at 62 -- the earliest age you can collect -- or waiting until you're older has always been one of the most important questions retirees and wanna-be retirees face.

But making this call is even more critical today. The reason: working and saving a few extra years combined with the larger check you would receive by postponing Social Security can help you rebuild retirement accounts that have been devastated by the bear market.

Of course, some people may have no choice but to collect as soon as they can. If you're forced into early retirement by a layoff or health problems before you have a chance to build an adequate nest egg, taking Social Security benefits ASAP may be the only option you have.

But if you're approaching age 62 in good health and you're in reasonable financial shape as well, waiting a few years can significantly boost the size of your monthly check for the rest of your life, not to mention pass on a larger payment to your spouse, if he or she receives a survivor benefit based on your work record.

So the take-it-now-or-later question essentially comes down to this: Will you (and your spouse, if you're married) be financially better off collecting payments for more years even if they're smaller? Or will you come out ahead with payments that may be larger by 25% or more even if you don't start getting them until you're a bit older?

The answer largely depends on how long you expect to live. If you think you'll be around long enough so that the total amount you collect from the bigger but later payments will be larger, then you're better off postponing.

If, on the other hand, you don't think you'll live long enough to overcome the late start in collecting benefits, then you're better off claiming Social Security sooner.

You can get a rough sense what size benefit you would qualify for at three different ages -- 62, your full retirement age and age 70 -- by going to the Quick Benefit Calculator on the Social Security site. For a more accurate estimate that calculates the size of your check using your actual work history, you can check out Social Security's new Retirement Estimator.

By comparing the size of the total amount you would receive year by year by claiming benefits at different ages, you can see how long it would take for you to break even under different scenarios.

Or you can get a very quick and easy estimate of whether you're better off starting at age 62 or your full retirement age by going to Met Life's Social Security Decision Tool.

Just plug in your age, gender and your most recent annual salary, and a neat little graph will pop up that shows your break-even age (76 in the 62 vs. full retirement age scenario), your odds of reaching that age and how much more you'll receive in total benefits if you live until 85 or 92.

This tool doesn't factor in any investment value for your Social Security benefits, however. Why, you may ask, does that matter if you just plan on spending the money anyway? Well, think of it this way. If you receive, say, $1,000 a month in Social Security benefits, that's $1,000 you don't have to withdraw from your retirement investments. Which means that $1,000 can continue to earn a return. If you assume a conservative rate of return on your retirement savings -- say, 4% to 5% after taxes each year -- your break-even period increases by roughly three years. For most people, especially someone in decent health -- that still usually makes postponing a good deal.

Married couples

The analysis gets more complicated for married couples. The idea is to maximize the amount a couple will collect as long as at least one of them is living. Recent research shows that the best strategy for many couples is for the wife to take Social Security at 62 and the husband to wait until he's 66 or older.

The reasoning is that husbands usually earn more than their wives -- which gives them a larger check -- but they die sooner. By having the wife start at an earlier age, the couple can collect more of her benefits while they're both living. And by the husband holding off to a later age for a larger check, the wife can then qualify for a larger survivor's benefit after her husband dies.

The best age for a husband and wife to begin collecting their respective benefits depends on the difference in their ages and earnings. To see what the ideal ages would be in your situation, check out Table 4 in a Boston College Center For Retirement Research paper titled "Why Do Women Claim Social Security Benefits So Early?". Or you can crunch the numbers on your own by downloading the "Start Social Security at 62, 66 or 70" program at the Analyze Now! site.

One final note: Recent research by T. Rowe Price shows that working, saving more and collecting Social Security later can be an especially powerful combination for increasing your income in retirement. For example, if you retire at 65 instead of 62 and save 15% of salary during those three years, you may be able to increase your combined income from investments and Social Security by more than 20%.

Bottom line: If your retirement accounts have taken a big hit in this crisis, you've probably already begun taking a closer look at your investing strategy. That's fine. But since you have little control over the financial markets, you may be able to improve your retirement prospects a lot more by re-thinking when you plan to retire and at what age you'll begin collecting Social Security.

Record high foreclosure

One in 10 borrowers in America are either delinquent or in foreclosure. 1.35 million homes were in foreclosure in the third quarter.

Many of those troubled borrowers are in California and Florida, which have among the highest delinquency rates in the nation.